That concludes the three-year contract head coach Eric Duft signed when hired in 2022, promoted to replace the retiring Randy Rahe (technically, it runs through March 31). His three-year record is 50-49 overall and 28-26 in Big Sky regular-season games.

Coaching carousel season began when Utah fired Craig Smith with two weeks left during a season in which Utah was 15-12 overall and 7-9 in the Big 12 Conference. Since then, other schools have made moves, including the likes of North Carolina State; less than one year since Kevin Keatts took the Wolfpack to the Final Four, Keatts was dismissed after an ACC Tournament loss, finishing 12-19.

Should Weber State join the carousel?

For Duft, who waited years to get the job he always wanted, it’s unfortunate timing that several things out of his control worked against him in a contract year. But now the university has a serious decision to weigh: renew Duft or move on.

ISAAC FISHER, Special to the Standard-Examiner

Duft’s hire is sensible even with the clarity of hindsight. On May 16, 2022, Randy Rahe’s sudden decision to hang it up came at a time when the coaching carousel had done most of its turns and was right in the middle of portal recruiting season. Considering that, and wanting to retain NBA prospect Dillon Jones, and Duft made easy sense.

He was, after all, the exact kind of coach Weber State would’ve hired anyway, and has in the past: a longtime successful Division I assistant, with existing ties to Utah. Barring a newly discovered honeypot, WSU doesn’t have hire-sitting-DI-head-coach money.

But what’s ahead of Weber State now is a deliberation about whether recent seasons merit continuing with Duft at the helm.

What follows is a consideration of what factors might, or perhaps should, weigh into that decision.

DUFT DEFENDS PROGRAM CULTURE

Results-wise, Weber State crashed out this season. But it would be unfair to at least consider how the team’s focus on improving offensively through the transfer portal was undone by some factors out of the coaching staff’s control.

Robert Casey, WSU Athletics

That, of course, would be Miguel Tomley’s serious, deteriorating health condition, paired with Dyson Koehler‘s blood clot management and eventual wrist injury. Each time WSU seemed to have something figured out, the roster changed. Just like that, two fifth-year seniors were unavailable and Tomley’s situation weighed heavily for several weeks.

Even with, and especially after, a 23-point home loss to Eastern Washington that served as the worst home conference defeat in program history, the team didn’t quit. In its final iteration, the team got better (especially defensively) and played hard to the last second. If Duft and his staff are as completely bad as their worst critics allege, that simply wouldn’t happen.

How much weight that holds is debatable, but it is at least true.

Duft spoke about that following the regular-season finale, an impassioned analysis of his team despite this season’s challenges.

“The radio guys just asked me, why do your guys keep playing hard? The reason our guys play hard is because we have a great culture in our program,” Duft said. “You’re going to have years where you have adversity, you’re going to have years where things don’t go your way, and then you’re going to have people that support you and you’re going to have people that are against you.

“And what our guys do is they buy into what we do here because we’re going to do things the right way. We’re going to have high-character guys. The hallmark of your program is not … when things are going great and you’re winning games and the stars are aligning — everybody has a good program (then). The hallmark of a great program is when you face adversity and your guys stay competitive, and they stay locked in, and they stay committed to what you’re trying to do that during that season.

“And these guys have done that, and I give them a ton of credit.

“It has been a year where it’s gone wrong in a lot of ways, personnel-wise, losing guys, having to switch the lineups because we’re losing guys … I think it’s created a really strong mental toughness with our team.

“That’s what good programs do. When you have culture and when adversity hits, then your program, you stay competitive. Now, maybe the results aren’t there, but the competitiveness is there and that’s what good programs are about. … And we’re thankful for those people that are for us and supporting us.

“This group,” Duft concluded, “they’re focused on the culture of our program, what we’re trying to get accomplished, and that ain’t changing.”

Some of the team’s recent struggles could be aided by freshmen currently signed to join Weber State next season, including redshirt David Hansen. The forward sat to work on strength and conditioning but, between first-person practice observation and what teammates say, is one of the best shooters many have seen.

Combine that with Duce Paschal, Anthony Moore and Bourgeois Tshilobo and the Wildcats have, at least on paper, lined up some players with higher athletic ceilings than parts of the current roster provide. (Though banking on true freshmen, as shown this season, isn’t alone going to lift the program, and any coach in any year can always appeal to the next recruiting class.)

Duft helped shepherd Dillon Jones into the NBA. Jones, by his own admission, had plenty to learn in the mental part of his game and Duft was key in getting Jones to a place where a team would trade a gaggle of draft picks to get him.

While Duft is tied to previous frustrations with the end of the Rahe era, a change in leadership possibly gives up the passion the head coach has for the university, the basketball program and the community — one he’s been in for 20 years — for someone who sees it as just a job. It’s rare to have someone in the seat that waited for that specific job.

The school says the team’s GPA in fall semester was 3.75, which is an absurdly good number for the program historically and great for a dual-mission school with a 100% acceptance rate.

At the time of his hire, Duft had Damian Lillard’s full endorsement. Lillard’s connection to the program is important.

Lastly, there’s at least some risk moving from a known quantity to the unknown. The degree of that risk is up to the competency of university brass, and athletic directors can mitigate that with smart headhunting.

REASONS TO MOVE ON

Even with the context of health and injury impacts on this season, and acknowledgment of the team’s fight down the stretch, the question is: is that enough?

There are no two ways around it: the 2024-25 Weber State men’s basketball campaign was probably the worst in program history.

Several measures illustrate that evaluation.

The team’s 5-13 record in Big Sky play is the worst conference winning percentage (.278) in program history, leading to a program-worst ninth-place finish. No other WSU team had finished lower than eighth.

Only two other seasons finished below .300 in conference play: marks of 4-10 (.286) in 2005-06 and 1986-87. The former resulted in the firing of Joe Cravens; the latter, Larry Farmer was fired the following season (after going 6-10).

The 2024-25 season is only the fourth time in the last 34 years WSU has finished below .500 in league play and only the fourth time in the program’s 62 seasons to reach 20 overall losses.

Weber State also set ignominious marks at home. The Wildcats recorded a 5-10 home record, including 2-10 against Division I opponents, to eclipse the previous single-season high for home losses (eight). The previous mark for the worst home losing streak against Division I opponents was four; the 2024-25 Wildcats lost seven straight such games in the Dee Events Center.

That included a home loss to last-place Sacramento State on Feb. 20 — only the third-ever victory for the Hornets over 30 games in Ogden, and just the fourth (and final) Division I win for Sac State this season.

Sure, UC Irvine and Utah Valley ended up being pretty elite mid-major opponents to host at The Dee. But even in “down years” of the past that included injuries, WSU won games at home.

For example, Rahe’s low season of 2019-20, an 8-12 conference campaign, featured Jerrick Harding playing on halfway working legs (a preseason foot injury led to shin splints), starting forward Donatas Kupsas tearing his ACL six minutes into the second game, and 6-foot-4 guard Kham Davis playing the 4/forward position on a knee that dislocated itself once a month or so.

That team still went 5-5 at home in conference play, including a win over Montana, compared to this year’s 2-6.

Those home lows impacted attendance. Only twice in 47 basketball seasons in the Dee Events Center (1989-90 and 2007-08) had Weber State drawn an average of less than 4,000 fans per game (excluding the 2020-21 season affected by COVID-19 regulations).

Even recently, in about 13 seasons of the streaming era — let’s say starting in 2010 when conference games began appearing online for free, and again excluding the 2020-21 season — Weber State averaged 6,088 fans per game.

The 2024-25 season averaged 2,700 fans per game over 15 contests.

Those who showed remained passionate for the work the team was putting in, but the dropoff even from the modest 4,811 average of 2023-24 was marked. Today’s sports environment is hard enough to keep attention on your team and, with men’s basketball’s position as the historical flagship program of the school, this alone may be something that can’t be waited out.

This year’s WSU team failed to win three straight games over DI opponents, and only beat DI opponents in consecutive games twice. Exiting Sunday’s tournament loss, the Wildcats are rated at No. 300 in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings — the first time WSU has finished in the 300s in 29 seasons of KenPom’s database.

Duft’s third season is unfavorable when compared to previous coaches. Rahe’s third year, with freshman Lillard, saw WSU go 21-10 overall and 15-1 in the Big Sky. Cravens went 18-11 in his third year, including 8-6 in the Big Sky. In Ron Abbeglen’s third season, WSU was 20-10 overall and 10-4 in the Big Sky, sharing the regular-season title.

Though acknowledging that WSU tried to recruit freshmen to anticipate older, extra-season players leaving the college ranks this offseason, recruiting shortfalls hampered the Wildcats in recent years.

Last season’s historic effort from Dillon Jones (the only player in Division I men’s basketball in at least 31 years to total 600 points, 300 rebounds, 160 assists and 60 steals) offered thrilling moments but also a first-round tournament exit when the Wildcats ended up with one-half of a center in Alex Tew and his ailing knees after other center recruits didn’t pan out.

This season, either Sarenac cousin having any impact (Nemanja did come on late with some bright moments) could’ve helped WSU win a few more games after losing Tomley and Koehler. A couple flashes in games Blaise Threatt missed aside, Saadiq Moore didn’t take an in-season leap that would’ve helped, either, and Nigel Burris had less of an impact as a third-year DI transfer and former Big Sky freshman of the year than expected.

Overall, Weber State won just two Big Sky tournament games in Duft’s three seasons, one of which came against last-place Sacramento State (the bar at Weber State is certainly higher than whether or not you’re better than Sac State). Two of the three seasons included playing with a first-round draft pick in Jones. WSU has only three tournament wins in the last six seasons.

Lillard’s connection to the program is important, but it’s unclear at this point if moving on would damage anything after Duft got his shot. It’s also unclear if or when a legacy contribution is on its way or if a change would impact that. (Side note: WSU badly needs additional program builders like locker room renovations and even a practice facility. Only WSU and Utah Tech remain without a basketball practice building among the Beehive State’s seven programs.)

Lastly, whether it’s fair or not to Duft, he’s connected with the relative downturn that trailed Rahe into retirement, especially since he was promoted without a search. WSU hasn’t won a conference championship (regular season or tournament) in nine seasons and hasn’t appeared in a conference tournament championship game in eight years.

Perhaps there are larger, university-level factors (like fundraising) in play as well, but such a drought has only happened once before. That came between regular-season titles in 1984 and 1994. Those same 11 seasons also constitute the longest drought between appearances in the Big Sky tournament championship game, one WSU is currently approaching. Any other stretch in program history never lasted longer than four years for either.

Given that record and suffering fan interest, it appears difficult to justify continuing on the same track.