Robert Casey, Weber State Athletics

It’s no secret that Northern Colorado football is down.

The Bears have lost 18 straight games and are 1-23 in their last 24 contests.

Ed Lamb, who helped coach Southern Utah to a conference championship in 2015, has yet to see his Bears claim a victory in his tenure. But that doesn’t mean they don’t compete.

Northern Colorado (0-6, 0-2 Big Sky) saw a home victory over now-No. 10 Abilene Christian slip away when ACU nailed a 54-yard field goal as time expired. That 24-22 loss was the Bears’ only time eclipsing the 20-point mark this season; they otherwise have averaged 11 points over the other five losses.

UNCo also opened the season with a 28-7 loss at now-No. 15 Incarnate Word; the Cardinals have averaged 36 points over their other four games and beat up No. 24 Northern Arizona 38-14.

Robert Casey, Weber State Athletics

“They play hard. Ed does a really good job of getting his team prepared. They played a lot of close games last year and obviously we were one of them,” WSU head coach Mickey Mental said. “So we’re not taking these dudes lightly at all. The message is that any Big Sky team can beat anybody on a given week … we respect what they do.”

While he was glad to see players like Jayleen Record, Jacob Sharp and Kyle Thompson make plays in a big win at Montana, putting behind them some mistakes in previous games, Mental says every week the focus is about how each player can be better this week than they were previously.

“Those guys earned it in practice … when their moment came, that’s growth,” Mental said. “But once the game was over, once we won, once we celebrated and got to Monday, all that stuff’s wiped clean. It’s about how do I reset my process, attack this week, get better and not mix the result with your process.”

That’s one way No. 20 Weber State (3-3, 2-0 Big Sky) plans to avoid a letdown against a winless team.

“If you let the result mix in with your process, that’s when you get beat,” Mental said.

MEET THE BEARS

Senior Kia’i Keone (No. 10) gets the start this week, the fifth quarterback to lead UNCo’s offense this season. He’s a senior transfer from Colorado Mesa (D2) and a Hawaii native who prepped one season at Skyline High in Salt Lake City. He’s 41 of 63 (65.1%) for 382 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Last week at Montana State, Keone was 17 of 29 for 247 yards, one TD and one INT, and was sacked twice.

Brayden Munroe (No. 88, 6-foot-2 sophomore) emerged as his top target, catching five passes for 84 yards. He leads the Bears with 20 catches for 267 yards and two of the team’s four receiving touchdowns. Darius Stewart (No. 0, 5-foot-9 junior) is the team’s top rusher with 253 yards on 52 carries (4.9 per carry) and 50.6 yards per game.

Senior running back David Afari (No. 1), who led the Bears in rushing last season, appears to have missed three weeks before taking four carries for 14 yards last week.

Senior linebacker Keyvon Lakes (No. 9) is the top tackler, totaling 35 including four for loss. He has one of the team’s three total sacks. Defensive back Franky Morales (No. 6) has 32 tackles and freshman defensive back Cam Chapa (No. 49) has 31.

TEAM VS. TEAM METRICS

Through six games, Weber State has scored 30.3 points per game, averaging 418 yards on 6 yards per play. Defensively, WSU has allowed an average of 24 points on 369 yards per game, with an average of 5.4 per play.

The Wildcats have seven defensive takeaways (five fumbles, two interceptions) and three offensive turnovers (one interception, two fumbles) for a plus-four turnover margin.

In six games for Northern Colorado, the Bears average 12.8 points on 290 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play. Defensively, Northern Colorado has allowed 36.8 points on 445 yards per game, with an average of 6.7 yards per play.

The Bears have a negative-four turnover margin. NoCo has turned it over nine times (four interceptions, five fumbles) while forcing five turnovers (two interceptions, three fumbles).

ODDS & PREDICTIONS

Jeff Sagarin ranks Weber State at No. 129 (up 10 from last week) in all of Division I (FBS and FCS, 263 total teams). Northern Colorado is No. 246. Accounting for home-field advantage, his formula favors Weber State by 25 points.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly ranks Weber State at No. 12 (up three from last week) in FCS (129 teams) and Northern Colorado at No. 114. His formula predicts a Weber State win 40-9.

D Ratings predicts a Weber State victory of 40-15 at 96% probability.

WEATHER

It’s still warm, making this mid-October night game a pleasant one. Saturday’s high of 83 degrees should sit at about 80 with mostly sunny skies for the 6 p.m. kickoff. The sun sets at 6:50 p.m. and the temperature is forecasted to drop to about 69 by game’s end.

TV & RADIO

The game broadcast streams on the ESPN+ subscription service, available on the ESPN app or WatchESPN.com, with Tony Parks and Riley Jensen on the call. Weber State’s radio call, with Carl Arky and Jerry Graybeal, airs in Utah on 103.1 FM and online at 1031thewave.com.

ALL-TIME SERIES

Weber State is 11-1 all-time against Northern Colorado, suffering a 2012 home loss and winning five straight since.

WSU won the last matchup 28-21, a 2023 escape in Greeley that saw the Wildcats score 21 points in the final seven minutes. The last game in Ogden was a 48-17 WSU victory in 2021.

Of note, the Wildcats have returned four interceptions for touchdowns over the last two matchups with the Bears.