ROBERT CASEY, Weber State Athletics

Weber State is hanging on to postseason hope while Northern Arizona hopes to rise above its station for its first playoff bid since 2017 (and only its third in the last 20 years).

It seems only one of those hopes will survive their matchup as the Wildcats (3-5, 2-2 Big Sky) visit the Lumberjacks (4-4, 2-2) in Flagstaff, Arizona, for perhaps the most competitive rivalry in the Big Sky.

The all-time series is knotted 28-28 and is 1-1 since the introduction of the Red Rock Rivalry trophy in 2022.

Northern Arizona found itself ranked at 3-2 after crushing Sacramento State at home, then lost consecutive road trips to Idaho and Montana. The Lumberjacks are battle-tested with a six-point loss at Idaho and, before enjoying a bye just like Weber State, held off Idaho State 30-26.

NAU is aiming high with first-year head coach Brian Wright and his quarterback, Ty Pennington, who both came from Division II Pittsburg State. WSU head coach Mickey Mental has known Wright for some time going back to when both coached college football in Ohio.

ISAAC FISHER, Special to the Standard-Examiner

“Know him very well, does a fantastic job running programs and has been successful wherever he’s been,” Mental said. “They’re going to play hard. They’re going to be multiple offensively; the quarterback plays well and doesn’t turn the ball over. Defensively, they pose a lot of different issues from a front standpoint.

“For us, we’re going to continue to work hard, take advantage of what they’re presenting us and put ourselves in a good situation to come out on top.”

MEET THE LUMBERJACKS

Pennington (No. 6) has 159 pass attempts without an interception this season, throwing for 175 yards per game and seven total touchdowns on a 63.5% completion rate.

He typically spreads most his throws between seven receivers, led by 6-foot-3 tight end Bryzai White (No. 12), who has a 16.3 yards-per-catch average, catching three touchdowns while averaging 43 yards per game. Kolbe Katsis (No. 11) catches three passes per game for 35 yards, and 6-foot-3 Ta’ir Brooks (No. 1) has three of his 11 catches go for touchdowns while averaging 20.6 yards per reception.

NAU rushes for 174 yards per game, with lead back Darvon Hubbard (No. 23), Pennington and Seth Cromwell (No. 34) typically piling up most of them. J’Wan Evans (No. 25) has been a big-play threat in more limited touches, totaling 204 yards on 26 carries (7.8 yards per carry).

Sophomore Alex McLaughlin (No. 7) is the playmaker on defense, leading the team with 57 tackles, 5.5 sacks and two forced fumbles. McLaughlin and linebacker Ammon Allen (No. 22) each have 5.5 tackles for loss and defensive lineman Micah Carreon (No. 50) has 6.5 TFLs; the Lumberjacks have 44 TFLs as a team, averaging 5.5 per game. Senior defensive back DJ VanHook (No. 4) has two interceptions.

TEAM VS. TEAM METRICS

Through eight games, Weber State has scored 30.9 points per game, averaging 430 yards on 6 yards per play. Defensively, WSU has allowed an average of 27 points on 385 yards per game, with an average of 5.5 per play.

The Wildcats have eight defensive takeaways (three interceptions, five fumbles) and 10 offensive turnovers (three interceptions, seven fumbles) for a minus-two turnover margin.

In eight games for NAU, the Lumberjacks average 29.5 points on 385 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. Defensively, NAU has allowed 22.4 points on 316 yards per game, with an average of 5.2 yards per play.

The Lumberjacks have a negative-one turnover margin. NAU has turned it over 12 times (three interceptions, nine fumbles) while forcing 11 turnovers (six interceptions, five fumbles).

ODDS & PREDICTIONS

Jeff Sagarin ranks Weber State at No. 147 (the same as two weeks ago) in all of Division I (FBS and FCS, 263 total teams). Northern Arizona is No. 152. Accounting for home-field advantage, his formula favors Northern Arizona by 2.3 points.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly ranks Weber State at No. 24 (the same as two weeks ago) in FCS (129 teams) and Northern Arizona at No. 31. His formula predicts an NAU victory of less than one point, essentially a 27-26 margin.

D Ratings also predicts a narrow margin, giving NAU an edge of less than one point and a 29-28 victory at 51% probability.

WEATHER

The game kicks off at 2 p.m. MDT and will be played indoors at NAU’s Walkup Skydome.

TV & RADIO

The game broadcast streams on the ESPN+ subscription service, available on the ESPN app or WatchESPN.com, with the venerable Mitch Strohman on the NAU-produced call with Kevin Stephens. Weber State’s radio call, with Carl Arky and Jerry Graybeal, airs in Utah on 103.1 FM and online at 1031thewave.com.

ALL-TIME SERIES

In the 28-28 all-time series, NAU snapped a three-game WSU streak with a 27-10 win in Ogden last season. Weber State won the last trip to Flagstaff, a 33-31 decision in 2022.