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Guest opinion: Republican tax cuts spurred asset price inflation

By Rick Jones - | Sep 14, 2024

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Rick Jones

The following facts have been completely ignored by Donald Trump and his media allies:

1. Because the economy is in a constant state of flux and change, every president inherits a unique economy where the conditions and factors are temporary and not repeatable. In spite of Trump’s trash talking the U.S. economy and denouncing “American carnage,” he inherited a good economy. In contrast, Biden inherited an economy that was much more precarious with many problems unique to COVID and most commentators talking about a recession, which was deftly avoided.

2. Presidents have very limited control over inflation. Politicians, trying to manipulate low-information voters, have greatly exaggerated the control presidents have over inflation. When inflationary periods are analyzed, repeatedly, the inflation was caused by factors outside of the president’s control. Why would presidents choose to have inflation if they had control over it? During the Carter administration (1977 to 1981), Republicans repeatedly blamed the very high inflation (home mortgage rates that were over 16%) on Carter’s deficits. Yet, Reagan’s deficits were almost four times as large and inflation was much less. (Carter’s deficits averaged $54.5 billion annually; Reagan’s averaged $210.6 billion over his eight years in office.) This prompted Republican Vice President Cheney to assert: “Reagan proved that deficits do not matter.” Even though the Trump years were worse than the Obama years for inflation, Trump assumes that presidents are responsible for everything that occurs on their watch. Any Democrat with a level of intelligence and integrity comparable to Trump’s could accurately, but very misleadingly, proclaim: “The U.S. never had hundreds of thousands of COVID deaths until Trump became president.” If Trump cannot be blamed for COVID, why should Biden be blamed for the inflation that it caused?

3. Periods of growth are also periods of debt creation since the two are 94% correlated. The debt can be primarily created by investors as it was in the 1920s, or by consumers as it was in the run-up to the 2008 collapse of the housing bubble. That debt may also be created by the government as it was during World War II. The Great Depression (1929 to 1941) continued for over a decade because the private sector will not create debt during deflationary periods. It was only when World War II created unprecedented levels of debt that the depression vanished. Surveying the history of the Great Depression and the collapse of the housing bubble in 2008 illustrates that private debt creation is much more dangerous for the economy than government debt creation.

4. From Ronald Reagan (1981-1989) to Donald Trump, assets (land and stocks, etc.) have inflated much faster than gasoline and groceries. In August 1982, the Dow stood at 777; recently, it has been over 50 times that number. Since that time, groceries and gasoline have risen by a factor of 3 to 5, but much land here has risen by a factor of 20 to 50.

5. Tax cuts, such as the Trump tax cut which gave 70% of the benefit to the wealthiest 1%, put asset price inflation in overdrive, causing every class of asset to rise. The person who saves $10 million with a tax cut will not purchase more apparel or eat out more often; they will buy assets and this will drive the price of assets even higher as billionaires buyout millionaires.

6. Inflated land prices will inflate the price of other goods and services. Inflated land prices will increase food prices. In the 1950s and ’60s, the New York price for beautician services and music lessons, etc., was several times what it was in Utah; the New York cost of living was much higher, and so the fees charged by service providers had to reflect that. As economist Adam Smith observed several centuries ago, the cost of producing a product depends on the cost of labor it embodies. Inflated housing costs will inflate labor costs.

7. As asset holders purchase more land, housing becomes less affordable; as the supply of available land diminishes, the price will inevitably rise. Predictably, the middle class is struggling since their compensation is growing much slower than housing costs. Orthodox economics overlooks this asset price inflation because it divides society into consumers and producers rather than using the class analysis that the economists of earlier centuries used.

9. The more people spend on housing, the less discretionary spending they have to spend on other goods and services — dining out, travel and shopping, etc. Those selling goods and services will spend more on advertising as their markets shrink and one business can only expand at the expense of another business.

10. From Reagan to Trump, tax cuts for the wealthiest have been a constant centerpiece of Republican politicians; their effective motto has been: “Unto him that hath, it shall be given.” Trump assumes that Reaganites were very misguided in most areas: free trade, protectionism, borders and immigration, family values, civility, ethics and morality (numerous Reagan officials were dismissed for acts that are trivial compared to Trump offenses), NATO and Russian imperialism. But he agrees with them on tax cuts for the wealthy. Since Republicans have been at the forefront of pushing for tax cuts that disproportionately benefit billionaires such as Trump, Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, etc., a strong case can be made that they are primarily responsible for the asset price inflation that affects our nation today.

11. It should be noted Republicans once supported very high taxes on the wealthy. During conservative Republican Dwight Eisenhower’s term (1953-1961) top tax rates were 90%. When his Vice President Nixon ran in the 1960 election, he pleaded with Eisenhower to reduce tax rates to help him win the presidency. Eisenhower, who had overseen the D-Day invasion and understood the real sacrifice millions had made for this nation, told Nixon that cutting tax rates was “fiscally irresponsible.” Taxes were lowered Feb. 26, 1964, by Democrat Lyndon Johnson. Relatively little asset inflation occurred during that period of high taxes. Inflation indicates “too much money chasing too few goods”; therefore, high taxes reduce the quantity of money. Significantly, Trump fiscal responsibility was once similar to Eisenhower’s: in 1999, he advocated a wealth tax of 14.5% on all fortunes over $10 million.

The U.S. media does not dictate the opinions the public should have, but it largely determines the topics people think about, such as celebrities, new products and styles, diets, the British royals, sports, etc. The media’s failure to discuss the debilitating impact of asset price inflation on ordinary people serves the moneyed classes and the Republicans like Trump who have exacerbated the problem with tax cuts for the wealthy.

Rick Jones is a retired adjunct teacher of economics from Weber State.