Roberts: Reign of wolves
At the end of one of the most well-known of Aesop’s fables, many innocent sheep are eaten alive by a wolf. It didn’t have to end that way. The villagers nearby were ready and able to protect the flock. So why didn’t they? Because the messenger whose job it was to warn them lost credibility. In the fable, this loss of credibility came from the messenger’s desire for a little amusement, but it doesn’t really matter why he lied — the key point is that when people lose faith in their messengers, the consequences can be dire. Messengers must manage their credibility carefully.
I asked several popular large language models (what many call “artificial intelligence” or AI, such as ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini) a simple question: “Who are the messengers of society?” They answered consistently, mentioning scientists, journalists, politicians, professors and business leaders, among others. But have these messengers in our society carefully managed their credibility in recent years? The comedian Jim Gaffigan recently “joked” at the Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner — a fancy dinner where the most prominent of society’s messengers gather — that he felt “obligated to lie” in that company. Was his feeling unjustified? I doubt it.
Earlier this year, an investigation found evidence of research misconduct in several papers published out of one of the most prominent cancer research centers in the world, the Dana Farber Cancer Institute. The evidence included exact copies of figures appearing in different papers, each supposedly representing different samples of data. One of the implicated authors is the CEO at the once-renowned Harvard University-affiliated center who earns well over $2 million a year. Another of the implicated authors serves in the role of research integrity officer for the institute. All four of the implicated authors have faculty appointments at Harvard Medical School: Those appointments come with tenure, but apparently not tenure’s associated responsibility. Harvard’s president resigned earlier this year after claims and evidence of plagiarism, while another prominent Harvard professor who studies dishonesty was suspended after data in four of her research papers was found to be manipulated. These individuals represent the very top of the scientific pyramid — the leaders entrusted with advancing the frontiers of knowledge and setting the highest standards of integrity. Their misconduct undermines public trust and distributes a discrediting externality throughout the entire scientific community.
For the first time since Gallup started collecting data on the question back in 1972, more Americans say they don’t trust mass media “very much” or “at all” than those who trust it a “great deal or fair amount.” Is that surprising? Not really, given the firehose of fabrications and incomplete information streaming from our beloved 24-hour cable news networks. These media companies are driven by profit, so they tend to pander to their respective bases. In this pursuit, many media companies suppress newsworthy stories they believe their audience won’t like, or only invite guests who share the audience’s view, which is constantly reinforced. I’ll allow you to select your own examples, as they are numerous, and encourage you to seek examples that make you uncomfortable. For the reign of wolves must be avoided.
Favorable consequences result, of course, for wolves with a taste for lamb and mutton. But in our society, wolves don’t sustain themselves with meat; instead, they feed off misinformation, fear, corruption and opportunism. Wolves thrive when trust breaks down. The modern reign of wolves takes shape as credibility in science falters, public trust in the media erodes, and demagogues from across the political spectrum exploit the resulting gaps to gain influence. Just as villagers without protection face a growing threat, we risk the rise of forces that exploit the absence of credible messengers. We must support credible messengers or become them, else we’ll divide ourselves among sheep and wolves.
Gavin Roberts is an associate professor of economics and chair of the economics department at Weber State University. He is a recipient of the Gordon Tullock Prize from the Public Choice Society and regularly shares his research locally, nationally and internationally.