Utah had a very active COVID-19 summer and health care officials are predicting a possible surge this winter.

A new subvariant called XEC has rapidly spread through Europe and is slowly making its way to the United States. It’s also quite contagious.

“We could be in for another surge this winter,” said Dr. Andrew Pavia, chief of the division of pediatric infectious diseases at University of Utah Health and director of hospital epidemiology at Intermountain Primary Children’s Hospital, during a press conference Wednesday.

“At this time, we can’t say when it will happen for sure or how high of numbers we’ll see, but it’s really time to start thinking about getting vaccinated,” he said.

The new mRNA vaccines are manufactured by Pfizer and Moderna along with a new, more typically seen vaccine produced by Novavax. Everyone ages 6 months and older is eligible to get the updated vaccine, not only to protect themselves, but also to protect others against severe infection, hospitalization and death, Pavia said.

“Vaccine effectiveness changes over time, so your first two to three months of protection are good,” Pavia said. “But because the virus keeps changing, we have to adjust the vaccine to the circulating variant.”

Kavish Choudhary, chief pharmacy officer at U of U Health Hospital and Clinics, said the vaccine also protects against the risk of long COVID-19.

“Even if you’re healthy and don’t have risk factors such as asthma, diabetes or severe obesity, it can still provide benefits,” he said.

As far as the safety profile, Choudhary and Pavia said it’s one of the most studied vaccines in history.

“We’re closing in on a billion doses in this country alone,” Choudhary said. “Yes, there are some very, very rare side effects, but getting COVID will make you much sicker. It’s a very very safe vaccine and that has been proven over the past four years.”

Although sickness from COVID was high during the summer, it was more difficult to track the numbers because of home testing and lack of reporting. However, Pavia said wastewater was one of the main ways to see how the virus was circulating.

Both experts also addressed the concerns over people who are skeptical of getting the vaccine.

“It’s really too bad that some people are caught up in the conspiracy theories,” Pavia said. “Those beliefs had a terrible impact on our society because about 30% of people didn’t get the vaccine at all, which could have prevented 230,000 deaths. It’s a real concern and it’s still killing people.”

Choudhary said false information has been spreading about the vaccines since the pandemic hit.

“The virus doesn’t care what your political or religious beliefs are. It will go after everyone. Whether you believe it or not, it’s real,” he said.

It’s also time to get your influenza vaccine, both experts said. While the virus doesn’t typically hit hard until December, it could arrive early and it kills approximately 20,000 to 40,000 people per year, so it’s recommended to get the vaccine by October.

If you’ve recently had COVID, guidance says to wait three to six months before getting the vaccine.